Hu ? There is no gamble (At least with the HD).
If your opponent does nothing the s.C whiff and the HD isn't activated, still true if it trade or you are hit.
The HD is activating only if it lands, plus with this timing you opponent if he tries to jump forward is hit before leaving the ground ... (other jumps s.C whiff)
You're just wide open to sweeps, slide moves, invincible moves, high reach fast moves, or very lenient moves (You can delay for them though). Still it's a little bet on your opponent habits.