Hindsight 20/20 and Video Games

[Dark Geese]

Definition of Hindsight bias:

"Hindsight bias, or alternatively the knew-it-all-along effect and creeping determinism, is the inclination to see events that have already occurred as being more predictable than they were before they took place.[1]

It is a multifaceted phenomenon that can affect different stages of designs, processes, contexts, and situations.[2] Hindsight bias may cause memory distortion, where the recollection and reconstruction of content can lead to false theoretical outcomes. It has been suggested that the effect can cause extreme methodological problems while trying to analyze, understand, and interpret results in experimental studies. A basic example of the hindsight bias is when a person believes that after viewing the outcome of a potentially unforeseeable event that they "knew it all along". Such examples are present in the writings of historians describing outcomes of battles, physicians recalling clinical trials, and in judicial systems trying to attribute responsibility and predictability of accidents."

Okay everyone, I wanted to get the thoughts from people in regards to this topic that concerns me that I have seen not only in the fighting game community as a whole, but in general.

What is Hindsight 20/20/bias in regards to what I am talking about?

When people look at match videos or tournament situations how they went down and automatically assume things are "black and white" and that they would've done better in a given circumstance when they do not have all the details.

For one I always hesitate before criticizing some play or how a person reacts in videos because:

1. For one you were not in their head so you do not know what they were thinking.

2. You also are not aware of factors that made that person do what they did in that particular video such as pressure from opponents or other things that you may think you can intuitively see on videos, but bottom line is you truly cannot unless you are actually there facing the person.

This is part of the reason for me launching this whole Mexico vs. Japan series. Sure the Japanese look "prettier" on film video etc, but again this error of Hindsight 20/20 and judging based off only what you can see from your computer screen instead of actually making the effort to gather all the facts is partly why many people's viewpoints have been biased by only match videos, GGPO etc.

Though the Japanese may have a prettier style, that does not guarantee that they will win in a head to head matchup vs. Mexico as the tournament results have clearly shown, so I have shown that this way of thinking is flawed and should be revised!

People have to realize it is not as simple as just saying "I would do something better" in a given situation. It does not work that way. I know most of us are guilty of doing this even in sports such as saying "What an idiot, Kobe should've passed the ball or taken a shot!"

It is easy to say that IN RETROSPECT,  but again you do not know what Kobe was thinking in that particular situation nor do you know what he was told to do, nor the pressure from the other team that caused him to make that decision.

I prefer the route of the reporters who ask Kobe why he made such a decision because they then try to understand his mental process instead of immediately and probably immaturely (and falsely) stating that they could do better in a given situation.

To those that say in these given situations that they could do better how can you be so certain that you would? In a given situation with such a high level opponent how can you be absolutely certain that you would even be trusted or given the same opportunity or even get in that same predicament?

Thus to me and many other competitors, this "Hindsight 20/20" is a disgrace, it is very disrespectful and a slap in the face to those out there actually competing while you have those that aren't even "in the fire" talking about something to which they do not have all the facts.

I think people should make the effort to gather all of the facts before making any assumptions or jumping to premature conclusions about anything that would land themselves in an embarrassing predicament.

Thus again when people decide to use "Hindsight 20/20" they are walking a very slippery slope that at least in video games and tournaments, gets solved rather quickly with face to face matches.

What do you all think about this?

-DG

[nilcam]

The hindsight is 20/20 is too true, in everything. I remember watching a XII replay from a game I played with solidshark and I was shocked at how many bad decisions I made and even more shocked at how my memory differed from the actual video.

As one of the many members here interested in improving, I would love to see videos that had comments from one of the players explaining their decisions. Gaining an understanding of the thought process would be invaluable.

[omegaryuji]

100% agree.  It's easy make judgments about what a player should've done after the moment's passed when you're just watching, as opposed to the player himself needing to decide what to do a split-second into the future.  I mean, if these hindsight 20/20 people are really so much better, why aren't they the ones playing?

The idea of having videos with a player watching one of his replays and explaining what he was thinking sounds very interesting. 

[Dark Geese]

Nilcam- Agreed 100%. When I watch all my videos I understand what I was thinking at the moment, but of course just like everyone else, I watch them and would do things differently given the chance again!! The reason you record this stuff is so you can study what that particular opponent did to you, know why they did it to you, and then discover how to get around it.

Too often people play "Theory Fighter" and say "Well I'd do that in this situation" as if it's cut and dry, but then when faced with that situation in real life, it is THEN that they truly understand why that person got hit by such a thing in the first place!!!!

If it was as easy as some of these people make it out to be don't you think everyone would be doing it?

Omegaryuji- That's my point see! There is a thin line between constructive criticism and destructive criticism, and for those on this Hindsight 20/20 I say the same thing to them- "Why weren't they the ones chosen/why aren't they out there playing in this video?"

In the end it's easier said than done and much easier to criticize from afar without having all the facts.

[solidshark]

I'm in agreement with most of what's been said. It's too damn easy to sit as a spectator and play Theory Fighter instead of playing the acutal fighting game as a competitor. The idea of hearing what the player has to say watching his movements in a video is appealing to me too.

As a side note, with the whole Theory Fighter though, in the past I've done what some have called side-seat coaching (sitting next to a friend in casuals and telling him what to do or what the opponent might do), and surprisingly instead of being told to get lost, afterwards I was thanked. I wouldn't recommend doing this often, but I guess it's sort of an example of constructive criticism.

[Dark Geese]

I'm in agreement with most of what's been said. It's too damn easy to sit as a spectator and play Theory Fighter instead of playing the acutal fighting game as a competitor. The idea of hearing what the player has to say watching his movements in a video is appealing to me too.

As a side note, with the whole Theory Fighter though, in the past I've done what some have called side-seat coaching (sitting next to a friend in casuals and telling him what to do or what the opponent might do), and surprisingly instead of being told to get lost, afterwards I was thanked. I wouldn't recommend doing this often, but I guess it's sort of an example of constructive criticism.

That's perfectly fine, I would do this with MightyMar simulating with him when he was here what the opponents might do, so yeah that's perfectly fine. Tell the player what the opponent might do but then once you show them in a match how it works it will stick with them, then you must practice it against that player simulating the opponent (what I would do with MightyMar all the time) to reinforce it with them, then it just becomes practice over and over so that by instinct they know how to react to something, because in a match you don't have time to sit back and watch what the person is doing ala a match video, you have split seconds where you must react, and the only way you would KNOW how to react to something like that is if you have seen it countless numbers of times at a high level.

Most people in the world don't have photographic memories, so they have to experience something firsthand then they will never forget it. The more times they experience it the better off they will be...

I'm just saying at a very high level of play (International level of play me vs. Kula for example in 98UM), Theory Fighter doesn't work as well.

I run through ideas when I watch my match videos all the time and that's why I come back on average 10-15x stronger the next time I play someone, I run through the ideas then I test them out on opponents in casuals and test them out in matches to see if they work, some do some don't...

Also just because it may work on your friends does not mean it will work on a high level player..

[desmond_kof]

I learn a lot from watching match videos, but I learn more from my own. It is difficult to truly judge a player based on their own match videos because there is a possibility that player might have learned more about the game and eliminated (or reduced) certain patterns or habits they do in battle. There is also a possibility that a player may not have learn anything more about the game (or themselves) which can point out certain really small habits or tendencies. It can be as small as a player not reacting well to anti-air or not blocking a certain move or combo, but if that person has put in the time to try to eliminate those mistakes, then the video can be seen as outdated information.

Also, videos do not reveal every detail about the players or the environment they are in. You don't know how long the player has been experience in the game, if they truly know the person they are facing, if they were nervous or distracted during the battle, if their pad or stick was malfunctioning, etc. So

[Dark Geese]

I learn a lot from watching match videos, but I learn more from my own. It is difficult to truly judge a player based on their own match videos because there is a possibility that player might have learned more about the game and eliminated (or reduced) certain patterns or habits they do in battle. There is also a possibility that a player may not have learn anything more about the game (or themselves) which can point out certain really small habits or tendencies. It can be as small as a player not reacting well to anti-air or not blocking a certain move or combo, but if that person has put in the time to try to eliminate those mistakes, then the video can be seen as outdated information.

Also, videos do not reveal every detail about the players or the environment they are in. You don't know how long the player has been experience in the game, if they truly know the person they are facing, if they were nervous or distracted during the battle, if their pad or stick was malfunctioning, etc. So

I wanna highlight what Desmond said guys because it is very true, as long as a person is continuing to truly look at themselves in the mirror and see the good and the bad and eliminate their mistakes, footage is basically old by the time it gets uploaded.

Look at The KOF Cup 2011 footage, it is basically just getting finished one month LATER after the tournament.

You guys don't think myself, Kula, Zeus etc have since retooled and gotten a lot stronger since then?

Therefore videos again are one point in time, and if someone is continuing to seriously play/get better, sure tendencies will be tendencies, but the information you have is probably as a whole outdated.

If someone is gonna watch my match videos I use that information AGAINST them by doing stuff they don't see in match videos in person.

[jinxhand]

Watching match videos is cool and all, and I can only get so much from it... Of course experience is where the true nuggets come from... Granted, some vids might have some things here and there, but its just that... Watching a vid and suggesting that someone should or could do this or that isn't really that bad imo, unless of course the person suggesting doesn't get his/her hands dirty in the first place. I accept constructive criticism, because people can always give you a different perspective of things, and though you might or might not have the same idea, it can also show you whether you were in the right direction or not when thinking about using whatever move in whatever situation, thus giving you some form of assurance... That isn't to say that that particular character is only to be played like this way or that way, but if you were trying to go in a certain direction, then talking to one who knows that street can be helpful...

Yeah there are plenty of times I'm watching my replays and think, "Man, I could've done this, or that", and I'm guilty of doing my own fair share of "theory fighting", but just like an actual theory, it needs to be tested and results need to come out of that, as to whether or not to toss that strat/setup/combo/whatever... And on the other side of that, I've watched other matches and did the same thing, but I also have to keep in mind that yeah I don't know what the hell this cat was thinking or planning to do... So with that, I approach it as humble as possible, with much respect towards that player, regardless of skill... I keep that in mind all the time, and leave room for "errors", as in "this person wasn't practicing his wavedashes, so he missed an ewgf opportunity", or "this stick had a jacked up so I couldn't land my strongest meaty combo"... My object is to learn from and with, and to also help as much as possible with whatever game, so that both that person and I can become solid in what we play, and in turn can put on a good show and have even more fun...

Though the Japanese may have a prettier style, that does not guarantee that they will win in a head to head matchup vs. Mexico as the tournament results have clearly shown, so I have shown that this way of thinking is flawed and should be revised!

The problem with this is that the only thing people see in vids are the Japanese playing other Japanese players, and no one else... On top of that, most matches you see involve a slew of safe moves hopefully leading to a damaging combo/setup... I see alot of this in games like Tekken, where there's just a constant stairstepping leading to an "in-and-out" tactic, which is followed by safe attacks only, and maybe one or two moves that are only jab punishable... So you get these cats on youtube seeing only these guys (and Koreans and some Filipinos) playing with say Kazuya and they think that's all there is to him, and start trying to play that particular style... So then that same person gets his game up and fights someone who knows those tricks, and they can't come up with anything to stop it, because they're only playing like Japanese Kazuya and not their own Kazuya... Sometimes you have to take risks, or do something unexpected to get the W... Change the patterns up, come up with new setups, stop being "PREDICTABO", etc...

And on a sidenote, I'd like to see more US vs JP or US vs MX...

I'm not too fond of over-the-shoulder coaching... I was crushing in a MvC3 session, and the only way some dude got me was playing with a character he didn't know (he was only good with Zero), and he had to get coached by some dude mid fight, and the crap was annoying... Do some coaching before and after the fight... That mess is even annoying in kickboxing... Anyway, I've probably spewed a bit of the same stuff other guys have been saying to a degree, so I'll end it here...

[Dark Geese]

Jinxhand this is true, what do you think it is going to take so that people drop their "tunnel vision" when it comes to match videos???

[desmond_kof]

I have a question...how can you truly know if a player isn't trying to win or deliberately letting someone win from a match video? Because I do know that Jwong got yellow card for his incident at PowerUp 2011 in MvC3...and I think most of know the other situation but I will not name any names. ;p

[jinxhand]

Jinxhand this is true, what do you think it is going to take so that people drop their "tunnel vision" when it comes to match videos???

One word: variety!!! Tons of variety in the match vids... So many times I see the same playstyles of Shameless, K', Kula, and other characters that get picked most times in certain games... Same goes for Tekken, or any other game like it... So many Feng players show the same mixup flow chart... So many Kage players work their way in to get a TFT (ten foot toss) so they can combo, or ring out... There's more to these characters than what's being put out... Sure, there are certain perks about certain characters and their playstyle might seemingly lead to zoning, rushdown, baiting, or some other "fighting style", but I feel that's only scratching the surface.

Ok, there are exceptions to the rule... For VF players, Chibita is that example... He takes Lion who was such a low tier character in VF5, and changes his whole mid/low mixup game into something totally worth while... For SF, (sigh) there's Daigo... Of course there's some people in other countries like Ryan Hart and some other cats too...

Ultimately, not everyone who plays Billy Kane for example will have a totally different playstyle... They will, however, have their own take on that particular character by putting their own "style" or "way" of playing him... That can very well make that character different from any other person that uses the same character... Your mixups and split second reaction to something using a specific tool or your gutsy style of risk/reward will be something that can make people see how different this character can play... It's like when Dhalsim players just start rushing down like madmen... "Oh I thought he was just zoning with some mixups here and there"... Nope... These people put time, effort, and heart into learning the ins and outs of Dhalsim, and know exactly how to work that magic... Sure, not every fight will be like that... There are some where you might have to be on your p's and q's because the matchup just isn't in your favor... But there's always that one moment that you just know when to capitalize on it because of the work you put in to learn that character and not just become a "cookie-cutter <insert character>"...

Starting off, there's nothing wrong with initially going the clone-justu approach-- you're learning a character, so its expected... But once you get to a certain point in which you can decide to level up, or stay stagnant, then yeah its time to put in some work... 

But yeah, showing how unique and diverse a character can be while winning a match, or putting on a good fight is something that's definitely needed... There's more to Shameless than that stupid BC combo of doom... There's more to Mishimas than EWGF all day... There's more to Lau than frame crunching and PPP combos... I could go on...

Plus there's more to KOF than Japan, Mexico, China, France, and Brazil!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! It's about time these cats see it in heavy rotation from the US, the rest of Europe, and even in damn Africa (not counting South Africa, people act like that's all that's there and nothing else-- c'mon)!!!

If I forgot something in here, my bad... I'll get my train of thought back once I finish this friggin huge reese's peanut butter cup...

[solidshark]

^^Agreed

[Dark Geese]

Desmond- You can't tell from a match video truly if BOTH parties are playing all out or not. Sure you can assume even in a tournament that people are going to give it all out 100% but there are those that once they have discovered they are the best in the entire tournament they will then coast or sandbag IN the tournament and the only way to make them play all out is to beat them.

In CASUALS that's the way I operate, the only way you are going to make me even consider picking my REAL team in casuals is to beat me like 4 matches in a row, then I will turn it up with my main teams, otherwise I'm just screwing around myself trying to just stay warmed up and test stuff and in turn as I've mentioned in the podcast, see what information people are willing to give me for free in casuals.....

Jinxhand/Solidshark- Variety is right but I say people have to go beyond that. People have to make the effort to seek out these videos that aren't so readily accessible even in different languages, and also traveling is key for people to leave this tunnel vision because then they see that MOST of the stuff simply isn't recorded. I've also said this many times, there is more to KOF than Mexico, Japan, France, Brazil etc, but until people start SEEING this stuff like what I am doing, unfortunately the tunnel vision will continue!

When it was before just East Asia and tunnel vision in that area, without a shadow of a doubt Mexico is now in that "Elite Status" as they have earned it, and Mexico needs to be on guard because I am sure Peru wants a shot at opening eyes as well, and what better way than by defeating Mexico!

Look at the stuff you all see from The KOF Cup 2011 for example, before all of this stuff I was doing how often would you all see videos featuring Zeus, Alexis, Kane9999 etc? That's right very rare!

Now they are household names because people have come to know them on my videos over the years! Before sure you could learn about them but you had to know where to look for them, I have simply made them more visible and made them household names around the world!

[omegaryuji]

Jinxhand this is true, what do you think it is going to take so that people drop their "tunnel vision" when it comes to match videos???

To add to what jinxhand said about more variety in match videos, it's also up to the people watching them to actually make some effort to think.  Let's face it, most people have a natural instinct to find the easiest way of doing something.  So, when they watch a video and see how their character is being played, a lot of players (especially weaker players) are inclined to just blindly copy what they see.

While that's fine if you're just starting out and trying to get a feel for how the game can be played, the problem is that so many people never break out of this phase.  Once you've got some knowledge and experience, you should be thinking of why that character is generally played in a certain way, what other tools he has that can compliment or diversify things, and on the flip side, think about why other characters struggle against certain tactics and how to exploit those weaknesses.  For instance, I liked to use Yamazaki in 98, but I didn't see him much in videos of high level play.  However, some of his normals are similar to Goro's (at least more similar than to Iori or Chris or Chizuru), so I could take elements of high level Goro play and try to work them into my style of using Yamazaki.  It wasn't always a successful experiment (there are good reasons why Goro is higher on the tier lists, after all), but doing stuff like that would help me to take different views on the characters that can improve my play.

Basically, people need to be willing to think for themselves.  Unfortunately, a lot of players aren't interested in doing that.  They just want to take the easy route of copying what they see commonly being done, often (for weaker players) without really understanding why it's being done.  Any variety is dismissed as an aberration or inefficient play (like, in SF4, Yipes plays a very aggressive Bison, or Mike Ross jumps all over the place with Honda, or Alex Valle has an unorthodox and almost reckless style with Ryu, yet because 90% of those characters are played in a textbook way, whatever success those players have is often labeled as random luck or something along those lines, and you'll often hear commentators on streams saying thing like "Man, if only Mike Ross would play more lame, he could've won that match", despite how consistently those players end up in the later stages of major tournaments).

The solution to dropping the attitude of "this is how the character is played, that's it, everything else is wrong" has to come from the people who have that attitude to begin with.  Showing them that there's more to Mature than spamming Despair isn't, by itself, going to change things.  Even basic characters can be played in very different ways (like John Choi, Alex Valle, and Daigo each had their own way of playing Ryu in SF2) while still being effective, yet there's a limit to how much you can accomplish just by showing and telling.  If the players don't want to take that extra effort of thinking and developing on their own, it really doesn't matter how much variety you show them.