I'd rather wait for the official sales report before I go spouting off that they fucked themselves on sales again.
And yeah the market's oversaturated, but honestly I don't put that all on Capcom. As of now in these times, they've contributed the SF4, MvC3 series and SFxT. We haven't really had to make a huge commitment to the SF4 series since Super ($15 and free I wouldn't call a huge commitment) so SFxT got room to breathe (too bad the game itself didn't help matters). Marvel is its own beast like always.
If the market's oversaturated, it's because EVERY FG maker wanted in now. It also doesn't help that it's the age of rereleases right now either. And there's 3 more FGs due out with TTT2, VF5:FS, and Guilty Gear (well, DOA as well but idk it's release date, my bad). But honestly it's not that bad this year, it's more about the 3D Fighters this year it seems.
Considering what Capcom contributed to last time there was oversaturation, I'm not gonna call them out as the reason it's happened this time. This time it's due to more companies wanting to put out more product. Not saying I enjoy their business practices or anything, but it's an entirely different matter.
As for a new developer to beat Capcom at its own game, define its own game.