Hey David, thanks for taking the time to answer our questions.
I have a quick question. If you know your opponent is using the the closeC/D option select, is there a way to punish them for that or do you just have to give up the empty hop mix ups?
I apologize for taking so long to respond to your question, it is a very detailed issue and I wanted to make sure I cover as much as I can.
The short answer to your question is: Sometimes. If your opponent is using the close C/D option select throw in the IDEAL SITUATIONS, as far as I know, there is nothing you can do to explicitly PUNISH it. However, there is a common situation where it can be punished, which I will explain below.
First, it is important to know that there is much that can be done to NEUTRALIZE the option select once you become more AWARE of the situations it is used in. I will first divide the situations in which you will encounter this option select into OFFENSIVE SITUATIONS and DEFENSIVE SITUATIONS.
When you are on the OFFENSE, your opponent is likely to use this option select to throw you when:
A. You have made them block a shallow jump in (an attack that was blocked very high), and there was not enough block stun from your attack to allow you to follow with a true block string after you land. Between the time you jumped in and the instant you start your grounded block string, you will get grabbed if they are close enough.
B. (Like you mentioned above) You go for an empty hop/jump in mixup. If they press C or D faster than you initiate your mixup, you get grabbed (which can be likely, because it takes you a few frames to land).
Believe it or not, both of the above situations are identical for your opponent. Their mentality is "He jumped, I'm going to block whatever he does in the air, and try to throw him right when he lands." This is a good option select because even if you predict the throw and try to jump or backdash away, your opponent's standing C or D will come out and probably anti air you. The absolute BEST way to get them to stop doing this is to DO TRUE BLOCK STRINGS. You may wonder how this will help your empty hop mixups, but bear with me and I will explain.
To do true block strings after a blocked jump/hop in, you must MAKE SURE that your air attack is blocked LOW ENOUGH. Now, remember that it's not necessary to make them block the jump in as low as possible, just make sure that your jump in is blocked LOW ENOUGH. By making them block your jump/hop in relatively low, you are decreasing the time between when you land and the end of the block stun induced by your attack. If you are blocked too high, it will take more time for you to land than it will for your opponent to do something (in this case, throw you). Another way to obtain the same result is to jump in with your air CD (blowback) attack. Air CD for all characters grants them very significant block stun, and give you more time to follow with a true block string once you have landed. IF THERE IS NO FRAME GAP BETWEEN WHEN YOU JUMP IN AND WHEN YOU START YOUR GROUNDED STRING, YOU CAN'T BE GRABBED!
You will find that doing this will make your empty hop mixups more effective, because your opponent will be trained into thinking "He jumped. If I block his jump in he's going to do a full block string. I can't grab him, I have to play defense." Now keep in mind, THE DEFINITION OF A MIXUP INCLUDES ASPECTS OF BEING UNPREDICTABLE AND TAKING RISK. If your opponent is predicting your empty hop mixups accurately, then the issue does not reside with the C/D option select, but rather with your own mixup game.
When you are on DEFENSE, your opponent will commonly use this option select against you after a hard knockdown. The proper way to do this is to approach the grounded player, hold back, and then press C or D at a slightly delayed timing. If the defending player wakes up with a reversal, the option select will block because the C or D didn't come out before the reversal induced block stun. If the defender wakes up and blocks, the option select will throw. If the defending player back dashes or jumps on wakeup, the option select will anti air with stand C or D. The benefit of being the defending player is that he has 11 frames of grab invincibility after a hard knockdown, making the option select punishable. Your two options in the situation are to wake up with a command grab or a fast low attack. Remember that you cannot do a normal throw from a crouching position. This means that the option selecting player has to be standing. Therefore, any fast low attack will beat the option select if you are facing it AFTER A HARD KNOCKDOWN. A wakeup command grab will also work, for (hopefully) obvious reasons. As far as I know, this is the only situation where you will be able to consistently punish this option select, even if it is performed correctly.
I hope this was helpful! Let me know if you have any further questions!