I don´t agree.
There is a reason they are offering the 4 CD pre-order bonus. Why would they do that? Because they just want us to listen to some nice themes?
No. This works similar to the box office of the film market. I mean, it´s not exactly the same but kinda close.
The first weeks sales determine the level of success you had on the market. A game eventually can make a lot of money throu time, but it is not really advisable to bet on that. No company would actually bet on that.
I'm not saying launch sales aren't important. I'm just saying they're not going to be very high, despite what Atlus may be hoping. The pre-launch bonus is a very nice gift to fans, but I don't think it'll increase sales much among non-fans. I mean, if you're an average fighting game fan in North America, chances are good you haven't played much KOF. So a music bonus isn't going to be very appealing to them.
The topic of video game sales is interesting (for me), but a bit beyond the scope of this thread. But if you want to continue the metaphor with films, there are some blockbuster games and films that are expected to make all their sales in the first weekend. (i.e. Transformers or Call of Duty)
Other movies and games have a smaller budget behind them, and can't put as much money into advertising. Companies usually count on word of mouth to help make their product profitable. (i.e. any indie film, or KOF)
You said KOF's market is different from Capcom's. That is correct. But like LouisCipher pointed out, the real problem is there is no real "market" in the US for KOF. THAT has to change.
That is why, releasing the game with no competition on the genre, is the best scenario. That will guarentee attention from gamers who like the genre but don´t have anything new to play for the time being.
If there is nothing else on the market, they will try it. Some might even turn into fans and ditch their previous fighting game. But if the usual shit they like is on the market, why try something new? To make things worse Kof is anything but a user friendly game but lets save that for another discussion. Point is, if the usual KOF fans are the only ones who will get this...it will fail.
They need to make themselves a place in the market, and for that, they don´t need the support of the usual kof-ers, they already have that, they need new people.
I understand your argument. And just to clarify, I didn't say that Capcom's market. I said MvC3's market.
I know a lot of people enjoy MvC3, but I also know a lot of people don't care for it. To me, MvC3's gameplay is EXTREMELY different from KOF's. Are there gamers out there who enjoy both? Sure! (Any on DC by the way?) Are there many of them? I really doubt it.
There's probably more overlap between SF or Blazblue fans and (potential) KOF fans. Just my impression.